State-of-the-Art Probabilistic Solar Power Forecasting: A Structured Review

• Published in: PERTANIKA JOURNAL OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
• Main Authors: Rahman, Noor Hasliza Abdul; Sulaiman, Shahril Irwan; Hussin, Mohamad Zhafran; Hairuddin, Muhammad Asraf; Saat, Ezril Hisham Mat; Ashar, Nur Dalila Khirul
• Format: Review
• Language: English
• Published: UNIV PUTRA MALAYSIA PRESS 2024
• Subjects: Science & Technology - Other Topics
• Online Access: https://www-webofscience-com.uitm.idm.oclc.org/wos/woscc/full-record/WOS:001343703200004

In recent years, the installed capacity increment with regard to solar power generation has been highlighted as a crucial role played by Photovoltaic (PV) generation forecasting in integrating a growing number of distributed PV sites into power systems. Nevertheless, because of the PV generation's unpredictable nature, deterministic point forecast methods struggle to accurately assess the uncertainties associated with PV generation. This paper presents a detailed structured review of the state-of-the-art concerning Probabilistic Solar Power Forecasting (PSPF), which covers an extensive and rigorous search of renowned databases such as SCOPUS and Web of Science (WoS), we identified 36 relevant studies (n=36). Consequently, expert scholars decided to develop three themes: (1) Conventional PSPF, (2) PSPF utilizing ML, and (3) PSPF using DL. Probabilistic forecasting is an invaluable tool concerning power systems, especially regarding the rising proportion of renewable energy sources in the energy mix. We tackle the inherent uncertainty of renewable generation, maintain grid stability, and promote efficient energy management and planning. In the end, this research contributes to the development of a power system that is more resilient, reliable, and sustainable.