A GENERALIZED MODELLING APPROACH TO ASSESS CLIMATE INFLUENCES ON HAND, FOOT, AND MOUTH DISEASE IN EAST COAST MALAYSIA; [Pendekatan Pemodelan Teritlak untuk Mengkaji Pengaruh Iklim Terhadap Penyakit Tangan, Kaki dan Mulut di Pantai Timur Malaysia]

• Published in: Journal of Quality Measurement and Analysis
• Main Author: Wahid N.A.A.; Suhaila J.; Rahman H.A.
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Published: Penerbit Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia 2024
• Online Access: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85211204553&doi=10.17576%2fjqma.2003.2024.12&partnerID=40&md5=5027cbc7917f61c34094520504124a7c

Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) outbreaks in Asia have increased since the late 1990s, causing severe and often fatal consequences. Several statistical approaches, such as Generalized Linear Models (GLM) and Generalized Additive Models (GAM), have been used in numerous studies to examine the association between climate factors and HFMD cases. However, the results vary by country. In Malaysia, these issues require further research, as there are only a few studies employing GLM and GAM approaches that focus on HFMD cases and climate factors, particularly in the East Coast region. Therefore, this study explores the association between HFMD and climate factors on Malaysia's East Coast using GLM and GAM with Negative Binomial to identify the best model for interpreting HFMD cases. The findings show that climate factors affect HFMD differently across states in East Coast Malaysia. The results show that the GAM Negative Binomial model best represents these issues. The temperatures between 26°C and 28°C will decrease the risk of HFMD cases in Pahang over the next two weeks. Besides, temperatures ranging from 25 to 27°C and 28.5 to 30°C significantly increased HFMD risk in Terengganu over the next two weeks. Nevertheless, Kelantan found no correlation between climate and HFMD. These findings can help local health authorities in developing a climate-based early warning system to minimize HFMD outbreaks in Malaysia's East Coast Region. © 2024, Penerbit Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia. All rights reserved.