Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) Model for Forecasting Malaysia Under-5 Mortality by State and Gender

• Published in: Springer Proceedings in Mathematics and Statistics
• Main Author: Mazlan N.M.; Che Mat Nasir S.H.; Wan Anuar W.U.Z.; Ismail N.A.; Wan Husin W.Z.
• Format: Conference paper
• Language: English
• Published: Springer 2024
• Online Access: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85209542039&doi=10.1007%2f978-981-97-3450-4_15&partnerID=40&md5=3da2a9fd0cba9c6c3cf3ff23cd96e2e8

Forecasting under-5 mortality rate (U5MR) is a significant element for each country to track the mortality progress of child under 5 years old and evaluate the performance of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) due to the U5MR. Globally, most countries have improved the U5MR over the last few decades, but the concern is whether the improvement is dispersed equally among the states in a country. Hence, this research seeks to investigate the trend pattern and develops Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model to forecast future trends of U5MR in Malaysia by gender according to states. The yearly Malaysia U5MR from 1980 to 2020 by gender according to states was analyzed. It was found that each of the state in Malaysia has a unique pattern of U5MR trend. Both genders showed a steady downward trend throughout all states, with males experiencing it at a higher rate than females. It was found that four ARIMA models which are ARIMA(0,1,0), ARIMA(0,1,1), ARIMA(1,1,0) and ARIMA(1,1,1) became dominant models in modelling U5MR data for all states in Malaysia. It was also found that the future U5MR in all states in Malaysia is slightly lower than the current U5MR for both male and female population; however, the trend increases slightly for almost all the states. In addition, the results showed that the pattern of future U5MR is different according to states. Hence, it is important to forecast U5MR according to states. This result may aid Malaysia’s government and the policymakers to make preparation on the instability of death under five according to states. © The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2024.