Predictions of Malaysia Age-Specific Fertility Rates using the Lee-Carter and the Functional Data Approaches

• Published in: AIUB Journal of Science and Engineering
• Main Author: Shair S.N.; Shaadan N.; Amirudin Fikri N.A.B.M.; A'Kashalf N.A.M.
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Published: AIUB Office of Research and Publication 2024
• Online Access: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85193058926&doi=10.53799%2fajse.v23i1.1024&partnerID=40&md5=59971b43395adce3191b8e0af4f175fb

Global fertility has been experiencing a significant decline, reaching towards the replacement ratio. This trend, coupled with increasing life expectancies, has led to the emergence of an ageing population. In this study, we aim to analyse fertility patterns among Malaysian women, considering both their childbearing age and ethnicities. A 63-year age-specific fertility dataset, from 1958 to 2020, were collected from the Department of Statistics Malaysia. These data were fitted into the Lee-Carter model and its modified version, which is the functional data model. The models were evaluated using the out-sample forecast error measures. Results indicate that the third-order functional data model able to capture most of variation present in the actual data, consequently outperforming the Lee-Carter model in forecasting fertility rates among Chinese and Indian populations. There was a noteworthy shift in maternal ages of the highest births to older ages suggesting a trend towards delayed pregnancies among women. It is predicted that the Malay total fertility rates will likely fall to below the replacement level reaching 1.71 in 2040 whereas Chinese and Indian total fertility rates will substantially decrease to the lowest level in history below 1.0 which are 0.54 and 0.70 respectively. © 2024 AIUB Office of Research and Publication. All rights reserved.