Mathematical model of COVID-19 transmission using the fractional-order differential equation

• Published in: AIP Conference Proceedings
• Main Author: Hamdan N.'I.; Kechil S.A.
• Format: Conference paper
• Language: English
• Published: American Institute of Physics Inc. 2024
• Online Access: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85182563556&doi=10.1063%2f5.0171649&partnerID=40&md5=f51933a8cf037a97186048c20a3cab3f

The purpose of this paper is to develop the Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) transmission model using the fractional-order differential equation defined by Caputo. This model is developed based on the susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered model, commonly known as the SEIR model. The basic reproduction number, denoted by R0, is computed using the next-generation matrix method. The disease-free equilibrium point is evaluated, and local stability analysis is performed. The analysis shows that the disease-free equilibrium is locally asymptotically stable when R0<1 and unstable when R0>1. In other words, the COVID-19 disease can be eliminated when R0< 1. Finally, numerical results are presented based on the real data of COVID-19 cases in Malaysia. © 2024 Author(s).