Spatio-Temporal Modelling of Dengue Fever Patterns in Peninsular Malaysia from 2015–2017

Spatio-temporal disease mapping models can be used to describe the geographical pattern of disease incidence across space and time. This paper discusses the development and application of spatio-temporal disease models based on generalized linear mixed models (GLMM) incorporating spatially correlate...

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Published in:Bulletin of the Malaysian Mathematical Sciences Society
Main Author: Abd Naeeim N.S.; Abdul Rahman N.; Md. Ghani N.A.
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Springer 2022
Online Access:https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85131073877&doi=10.1007%2fs40840-022-01313-0&partnerID=40&md5=610cbaaa0f48d5850a48d73ba7c302bf
id 2-s2.0-85131073877
spelling 2-s2.0-85131073877
Abd Naeeim N.S.; Abdul Rahman N.; Md. Ghani N.A.
Spatio-Temporal Modelling of Dengue Fever Patterns in Peninsular Malaysia from 2015–2017
2022
Bulletin of the Malaysian Mathematical Sciences Society
45

10.1007/s40840-022-01313-0
https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85131073877&doi=10.1007%2fs40840-022-01313-0&partnerID=40&md5=610cbaaa0f48d5850a48d73ba7c302bf
Spatio-temporal disease mapping models can be used to describe the geographical pattern of disease incidence across space and time. This paper discusses the development and application of spatio-temporal disease models based on generalized linear mixed models (GLMM) incorporating spatially correlated random effects, temporal effects and space–time interaction. Further, the models are fitted within a hierarchical Bayesian framework with Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation (INLA) methodology. The main objectives of this study are to choose the model that best represents the pattern of dengue incidence in Peninsular Malaysia from 2015 to 2017, to estimate the relative risk of disease based on the model selected and to visualize the risk spatial pattern and temporal trend. The models were applied to weekly dengue fever data at the district level in Peninsular Malaysia as reported to the Ministry of Health Malaysia from 2015 to 2017. In conclusion, it can be seen that there was a difference in dengue trend for every district for 2015–2017 and the models used was effective in identifying the high and low risk areas of dengue incidence. © 2022, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Malaysian Mathematical Sciences Society and Penerbit Universiti Sains Malaysia.
Springer
1266705
English
Article

author Abd Naeeim N.S.; Abdul Rahman N.; Md. Ghani N.A.
spellingShingle Abd Naeeim N.S.; Abdul Rahman N.; Md. Ghani N.A.
Spatio-Temporal Modelling of Dengue Fever Patterns in Peninsular Malaysia from 2015–2017
author_facet Abd Naeeim N.S.; Abdul Rahman N.; Md. Ghani N.A.
author_sort Abd Naeeim N.S.; Abdul Rahman N.; Md. Ghani N.A.
title Spatio-Temporal Modelling of Dengue Fever Patterns in Peninsular Malaysia from 2015–2017
title_short Spatio-Temporal Modelling of Dengue Fever Patterns in Peninsular Malaysia from 2015–2017
title_full Spatio-Temporal Modelling of Dengue Fever Patterns in Peninsular Malaysia from 2015–2017
title_fullStr Spatio-Temporal Modelling of Dengue Fever Patterns in Peninsular Malaysia from 2015–2017
title_full_unstemmed Spatio-Temporal Modelling of Dengue Fever Patterns in Peninsular Malaysia from 2015–2017
title_sort Spatio-Temporal Modelling of Dengue Fever Patterns in Peninsular Malaysia from 2015–2017
publishDate 2022
container_title Bulletin of the Malaysian Mathematical Sciences Society
container_volume 45
container_issue
doi_str_mv 10.1007/s40840-022-01313-0
url https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85131073877&doi=10.1007%2fs40840-022-01313-0&partnerID=40&md5=610cbaaa0f48d5850a48d73ba7c302bf
description Spatio-temporal disease mapping models can be used to describe the geographical pattern of disease incidence across space and time. This paper discusses the development and application of spatio-temporal disease models based on generalized linear mixed models (GLMM) incorporating spatially correlated random effects, temporal effects and space–time interaction. Further, the models are fitted within a hierarchical Bayesian framework with Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation (INLA) methodology. The main objectives of this study are to choose the model that best represents the pattern of dengue incidence in Peninsular Malaysia from 2015 to 2017, to estimate the relative risk of disease based on the model selected and to visualize the risk spatial pattern and temporal trend. The models were applied to weekly dengue fever data at the district level in Peninsular Malaysia as reported to the Ministry of Health Malaysia from 2015 to 2017. In conclusion, it can be seen that there was a difference in dengue trend for every district for 2015–2017 and the models used was effective in identifying the high and low risk areas of dengue incidence. © 2022, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Malaysian Mathematical Sciences Society and Penerbit Universiti Sains Malaysia.
publisher Springer
issn 1266705
language English
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