A system dynamics model to predict the number of patients and resources required in emergency department’s yellow zone; [Model sistem dinamik untuk meramalkan bilangan pesakit dan keperluan sumber tenaga di zon kuning jabatan kecemasan]

• Published in: Sains Malaysiana
• Main Author: Mohd Yusoff N.S.; Liong C.-Y.; Md Noh A.Y.; Ismail W.R.; Ahmad N.
• Format: Article
• Language: Malay
• Published: Penerbit Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia 2019
• Online Access: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85065849793&doi=10.17576%2fjsm-2019-4804-24&partnerID=40&md5=74eeb640432ff3f0a593855bd29b94e6

Emergency Department of Hospital Universiti Sains Malaysia (EDHUSM) has shown rapid changes and is facing a drastic transformation in relation to the importance of the healthcare system. Reasonable resource forecasting and planning should be done to meet the growing demands of patients. Hence, this study is focusing on the Yellow Zone in JKHUSM which requires proper planning on the needs of the resources that should be available now and in the future to assist the management in the department’s strategic planning as well as to improve the patients flow and services in the zone. Systems Dynamics modeling is used to forecast the number of patients that will visit, and predict the resources required to match the demand and supply in the Yellow Zone at present (2014) and in the future for the next five (2019) and ten years (2024). The results showed that 11 doctors, 12 nurses and 18 beds are needed compared to nine doctors, nine nurses and 16 beds to cater for patients visiting the Yellow Zone at present. Furthermore, an addition of two beds is predicted to meet the patient’s needs over the next five and ten years. Meanwhile, no additional doctors and nurses are required to meet the patient’s demand for the next five years. However, the addition of a doctor and a nurse is needed to meet the next 10 years’demand. Therefore, forecasting of these resources is crucial to improve the patients flow in the Yellow Zone of EDHUSM and to assist in achieving the Key Performance Indicator of the department. The results of the study will help the management to make the right decision within their stipulated budget to improve the quality of services rendered and further enhance the performance of EDHUSM’s Yellow Zone. © 2019 Penerbit Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia. All rights reserved.